Romanian Sentiment Review – Dubai vs. Bucharest

What works will always be debated because emotions don’t even leave us when we analyze forecasts. We have doing RSR (Romanian Sentiment Review) for more than a year and it continues to surprise us how a simple survey can be so powerful. Accountability is never 100% and the best global researchers have delivered 34% accuracy. Yes! Less than 50% accuracy. We invite you to visit our blogs and check the last 12 issues of RSR and do a month over month review. This survey sentiment product crossed 60% accuracy when it came to month over month outlook. End of this month we will be coming out with accuracy reports and will illustrate the case further.

Coming back to this weeks RSR. This is what we said last time

“On one side market structure remains weak, while on the other side we have sentiment readings that have crashed. This makes for a tough interpretation. Short term (few trading days, maybe be a few weeks) markets remain oversold and nearing a sentiment bottom, while on the intermediate term (a month or two) negativity can not be considered over.”

The short term bottom we talked about pushed prices higher in Nov. Now if the intermediate forecast is still valid we are still in a topping process on Romania than otherwise. An internal discussion threw some observations how the survey respondents might have responded with or without Dubai news. Well! This like many other observations are subjective thoughts. DUBAI has been underperforming BETFI since the start of the year. This has been illustrated below through a falling ratio line between DUBAI INDEX and BETFI prices. This means that the markets knew of the debt problem in Dubai and hence kept discounting the same over the last 9 months. This is why emerging markets like Romania were outperforming Dubai Index. The conclusion is DUBAI news can’t really change the sentiment survey much. Sentiment leads news not the other way around. Enjoy the latest sentiment readings on RSR.

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A SENTIMENT INDEX reading can assist to measure these extremities in mood and potential market turns. Survey respondents will not only benefit from the interpretation and indicator readings but also will be invited for regular training seminars on sentiment indicators and provided relevant literature. Orpheus CAPITALS and Prognosis.ro are two independent research companies publishing the ROMANIAN SENTIMENT REVIEW. RSR is a sentiment index based on the survey of market players. The respondents are queried on a host of areas including time frame of expectations, bullish and bearish bias and sectoral preferences. The data is then analysed to create various sentiment indices. The readings of the various indices explains the market sentiment and market direction. We also furnish the sentiment data on a periodical basis to financial institutions, fund managers and brokers for further research and investment.

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