Monthly Archives: January 2007

Horse Sense

By Orpheus | Published: 29 January, 2007
Al Ries and Jack Trout summed it beautifully. To become successful in life, you need horse sense to ride a winner. When to get on a sector horse and when to get off is a sense not every body has. Identifying outperformers from underperformers needs home work. For example, sector risk is the greatest contributor [...]
Posted in ACCURACY.IND, India | Leave a comment

The legend of Cornucopia

By Orpheus | Published: 24 January, 2007
Amalthea raised Zeus on the milk of a goat and in turn Zeus gave her the goat’s horn, the horn of plenty, which had the power to give to the person in possession of it whatever he or she wished for. This is the legend of cornucopia. Despite what contemporary mindsets might be, for us [...]
Posted in Agro | Tagged | Leave a comment

THE PROSPERITY INDEX

By Orpheus | Published: 24 January, 2007
Daniel Kahneman, Father of behavioral finance has clearly illustrated in his life long and Nobel Prize winning work that a majority of us humans are loss averse. Even if it means making a wrong choice. If we plug his work on the Elliott fractal then we can assume that all down ending C waves will [...]
Posted in Metals | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Westernisation of Asian diet

By Orpheus | Published: 20 January, 2007
Adam Smith would have been so happy to see thriving Mac burgers next to Andheri station in Mumbai. The vision of capitalism lived much beyond his imagination. But what might shock him though is how consumerism overwhelmed the invisible hand. And how sustained income, urbanization and growth pushed Asia to drop an inferior good rice [...]
Posted in Agro | Tagged | Leave a comment

Waking up to Gung Ho

By Orpheus | Published: 17 January, 2007
An asset or currency that wakes up from years of inaction is an opportunity. And Market psychology that goes gung ho is scary. We at Or-phe-us differentiate between the two clearly. We are alert when an asset is ready to move out of inaction and we are careful when market psychology gets going. For us [...]
Posted in ACCURACY.FOREX | Tagged | Leave a comment

TRIANGE TRIANGLE EVERYWHERE

By Orpheus | Published: 12 January, 2007
If you would replace triangle with water, the statement will become life defining. But what if we tell you the simple Euclidean geometric form not only defines the molecular form of H2O but also the demand and supply cycles of environment that might push the now inexpensive natural asset into a high return exponential trajectory. [...]
Posted in Metals | Tagged , | Leave a comment

OIL on the edge

By Orpheus | Published: 10 January, 2007
After the confusion at 60, we threw in the towel for the alternate count looking at prices lower than 17 Nov low. This was still easy, as Nov – Dec move up was a counter trend move, which had to end and push prices lower. Now we are almost $ 10 down from 60. Last [...]
Posted in Energy | Leave a comment

INDIA OUTLOOK 2007

By Orpheus | Published: 8 January, 2007
 The Indian economic cycle is heading to the late expansion stage. Theoretically there are five stages viz. early expansion, middle expansion, late expansion, early contraction and late contraction. The very fact that we are heading to the late expansion stage suggests that we are still away from a top and 2007 might see a new [...]
Posted in ACCURACY.IND, India | Leave a comment

The Quirky Human

By Orpheus | Published: 6 January, 2007
Although he never took an economics course, Princeton psychologist [bold]Daniel Kahneman[/bold] received the Nobel Prize in economic sciences in 2002. Kahneman’s life-long work integrated psychological research and economic science. His work showed economists how people don’t always make reasoned choices. Kahneman calls it “The Quirkiness of Human Judgment”. [bold]“Sell high and buy low”[/bold] sums this [...]
Posted in Agro | Tagged | Leave a comment